FIVE DOMAINS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS AND THE CHINESE THREAT TO AMERICA AND AUSTRALIA
As a resident of Australia, my interest in foreign policy and strategy quickly turned to understanding the Australian air-sea gap strategy, and the Chinese threat when I moved here in 2016. In this article, I will share with Americans and Australians the current threat China poses, which, in my opinion, is not fully understood by the general public in both of my nations.
As a business executive, advisor, consultant, and business board member, the implications of the Chinese short and long games must now be included in strategic planning. China impacts the supply chain, and are a key element of international business planning. Dealing with the Chinese will, increasingly, requires grit on the part of government and business leaders.
As an American in this Great Southern Land, my first principles thinking on national security was and is, keep China as far from our shores as possible. I first began writing about the Chinese threat in 2011 after serving as Campaign Manager for a U.S. Congressional candidate NY-28 in 2010. In that role, I often wore the speechwriter hat, and was the primary thought leader on foreign policy on the campaign team. Since then, I have continued to think and write about foreign policy and strategy.
On my “What’s New America?” blog, in December 2011, I wrote an article entitled “China Thieves: Time for Justice.” You can read it here.
In the article, I wrote about Chinese cyber-warfare and said:
First, we need to innovate new cyber security systems for government and business, and effectively lock out the Chinese hackers. Then, we can fight them with monetary policy, trade policy, and other political means. Most powerful of all, we can use market forces. Is it more important to get cheap goods or stand up to the bully who steals your lunch every day?
Looking back eight years on my first thoughts about the emerging Chinese strategic threat to the West, I believe my thinking on the subject was right. Much of what I said then is now smack dab in the center of American policy and military strategy today.
As this is my first notebook post on my thoughts regarding American, and now Australian foreign policy and military strategy, let’s begin with a real quick basic framework for thinking about foreign affairs and military strategy.
Primer on Foreign Policy and Military Strategy
Foreign policy consists of self-interest strategies chosen by the state to safeguard its national interests and to achieve goals concerning the external relations and activities of the state. Since the national interests are paramount, foreign policies are designed by the government through high-level decision-making processes (Foreign Policy, used by permission CC BY-SA 3.0).
The decision making process begins with a foreign policy analysis comprised of the following stages:
1. Assessment of the international and domestic political environment.
2. Goal setting.
3. Determination of policy options.
4. Formal decision making action.
5. Implementation of chosen policy option by the State Department or Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Now, before spelling out the Chinese threat, a quick primer on military strategic thinking framework is also helpful.
Military operations are strategically planned to address specific situations. TTPs (proven tactics, techniques and procedures) are the toolbox used by military strategists to construct each operation to counter the threats of each enemy situation.
There are four types of military operations: offensive, defensive, stability and support. Each serves its own purpose and is used by battlefield commanders to handle different enemy engagements.
Additionally, there are five military domains of warfare—land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. I could write an article on each of these, but for now, these frameworks help us conduct a situational threat assessment, think strategically, and discuss what our general goals might be. The USA and Australian governments are obviously working stages three-five above. I believe the times we live in are more dangerous than most people realise, and the likelihood of military engagement in the coming years with China is high. We are already in an economic shadow war.
Where I like to dive in to American foreign policy is with Mitt Romney. In a 2012 Presidential debate, then President Obama called Romney out for saying in his book, “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness,” that Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat facing America. Those were the days of The War on Terror. Obama mocked Romney. Romney was right. The Russians pose risks in every military domain. The 2016 American election meddling is only the tip of the Russian threat to America.
Both Russia and China want to take down America as the dominant power in the world. Russia is playing spoiler, but China is playing genuine competitor. The Chinese upon analysis are a much bigger and more complex threat.
Analysis of the Chinese Threat
1. Space Domain: The Chinese have Kamikaze “kidnapper” satellites with grappling arms that can snatch satellites out of geo-stationary orbit at 20,000 miles. Their technology has mastered maneuverability and situational awareness capabilities. According to US Air Force Space Command reactivated in 2018, China can take out communications: surveillance satellites, nuclear early-warning satellites, GPS (on which a whole host of military technologies depend) including making smart bombs not smart and making drones not fly.
2. Sea Domain: China is under the waves with diesel-electric subs. They have surprised American naval forces by surfacing next to air craft carriers conducting war games exercises. This is a message to the USA: “Your dead” if there was a war.
3. Election Interference: China has interfered in Australian elections through economic pressure and corruption of Members of Parliament with bribes. The Chinese economic policies are intended to have political effects in the USA and Australia.
4. Cyberspace Domain: The PLA in China conducts probing attacks on USA electronic election systems and regularly hack private sector IT and government networks for political effect as well as espionage. China is straight-up stealing state secrets, national security intellectual property and private sector intellectual property. Former head of counterintelligence for the FBI, Bob Anderson, has spoken about Chinese spy Stephen Su, who over the course of four years stole hundreds of gigabytes of data on the F-35, the F-22, and the C-17. And today, China is flying three jets that look exactly like the F-35.
5. Land and Air Domains: The PLA Air Force is developing true strategic air power, including updates to its bomber and long-range land-attack and anti-ship cruise-missile capabilities. Most recently, China has developed the H-6N bomber, which can carry the 3,000-kilometre- range CH-AS-X-13 air-launched ballistic missile, and is working on an even more capable and stealthy H-20 bomber. If deployed into the South China Sea, such a combination could strike at Australian Defence Force (ADF) bases almost as far south as RAAF Edinburgh, near Adelaide.
The American base in Guam would be a primary military objective for China. Chinese investment in hypersonic weapons R&D, as part of President Xi’s ‘civil–military fusion’ agenda, adds to the challenge. The speed and complex flight profile of hypersonic weapons make ballistic-missile defence (BMD) more challenging, dramatically reduce warning time and extend strike range.
Here in Australia, Canberra foreign and military policy has evolved from the sea-air gap theory that the remote geographic location of Australia was its best defence to what is called the “Forward Defence Policy” which aims to:
• Deter, deny and defeat attacks on or threats to Australia and its national interests, and northern approaches.
• Make effective military contributions to support the security of maritime Southeast Asia and support the governments of Papua New Guinea (PNG), Timor-Leste and Pacific island countries to build and strengthen their security.
• Contribute military capabilities to coalition operations that support Australia’s interests in a rules-based global order.
The Implications for Business and Government
Americans and Australian business leaders aware of the trade war between America and China are also likely aware of Huawei. Rick Ledgett, former deputy director of the NSA, says China has laws that require their technology companies to work with their security services. This is the big story today with the USA, Australia, and New Zealand pushing back against China banning Huawei from 5G development due to spying risks. China is increasingly an authoritarian country. With the social credit system, the expansion of the surveillance state, and the presence of concentration camps imprisoning Uighurs at Debancheng in Xinjiang province, the harsh realities of the one party CCP neo-totalitarianism State are emerging.
Google Earth Screen Cap of the Chinese Prison in Debancheng
In one party China, if the state says to Alibaba, Tencent, or other Chinese companies, to turn over their data, they must comply. They have no choice. This is not to say that Chinese business executives are compatriots of the Chinese Communist Party state. Nevertheless, the CCP can end or modify their existence, so compliance is certain. Any link to Chinese companies presents not only the threat of stolen intellectual property, but also the likelihood of national security risks.
As an Australian resident, I have quickly learned Australia’s vast inland areas are a natural defensive strategic geography. One of the principal reasons modern Australia has never been invaded is because of the difficulty of projecting enough forces to occupy the Australian continent, combined with the problems posed by the vast and hostile terrain between our northern coasts and our southern population centres.
In future articles, I will write more about the complexities, threats, and impacts the modernised Chinese military present for business, government, and academic leadership in America and Australia. An Australian diplomatic and military response to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the domain capabilities of the China threat to the Australian homeland are happening quickly under the Morrison government. I aim to speak to these as a thoughtful strategic thinker doing my part to keep Americans and Australians informed as the external interests and activities of our countries respond to the Chinese agenda.
This article first appeared on my Facebook Page, Kevin Baker’s Polymath Notebook: Learn, Think, Connect, Apply